The current circumstances will set the canvass for the year, so let's take stock there.

The geopolitical climate, changes to industrial relations law, cost of living pressures and skills shortages are factors we are dealing with.

And we are seeing a slowdown in spending bite with sluggish retail sales over Christmas. And most of us will know someone who sadly lost their job in the lead up to Christmas.

Most countries are wrestling with high inflation, but there are positive signs that it's slowly easing.

More than ever, the impact of global events are being acutely felt in Australia. It’s why we remain concerned about escalating tensions, beyond the horrendous loss of life. There is cause for concern over the ongoing Ukraine and Gaza crisis.

I’ve spoken to many trusted sources throughout December to understand where we are heading. The responses range from “See you in 2025”, to “headwinds abound”, and even some who predict a significant market correction.

So, with that background, here is how I see the year ahead for us.

At least 40 countries will be holding elections, starting with Taiwan shortly, and through to the USA in November, and India, South Africa, and Indonesia along the way. Indeed, more than four billion people will vote in 2024.

And that will have a material impact on us. Australia in turn will go to the polls sometime from December to May 2025.

I remain optimistic, and the start to the year will feel more buoyant than the reality may be. The flurry of the Australian Open, Pink and Taylor Swift concert extravaganzas, the start of the AFL season and the Australian Formula One Grand Prix will take us through to Easter in a positive frame.

Under the surface of events, look to indicators like the strength of the Magic Millions thoroughbred sales next week, as that is often a guide to market confidence. Then the easing of China trade restrictions, particularly around wine, is expected in March and that will be a welcome signal. Trade opportunities will play a significant role in our longer-term recovery and China will provide the restart we need.

I expect many companies will be making staff decisions early in the year, and that will lead to further job losses.

With inflation tapering off, so too will the pressure of more rate rises. It’s possible for one more in the March/April timeframe, but the outlook is for rate cuts to occur from possibly late 2024.

The signs are for a promising federal budget, which will be used to strengthen the economy and relieve some cost-of-living pressures. I'd expect May to be relatively positive with appropriate messaging from the Federal Government. In contrast, the State Budget will be a tough one.

As we head to winter it will be a hard grind, but I’m confident the worst will be behind us.

With the Government reducing immigration, the impact will be felt in some sectors, such as education and hospitality. But the positive will be for those who do lose their job, as they will have a realistic opportunity for re-employment.

Unemployment is likely to stay relatively low despite the prospects of job cuts, meaning five to six per cent unemployment levels will sustain into the future.

Spring always brings a sense of renewal, and it will again next year. The US election in November next year will ensure the Biden administration will do what it can to ensure their economy thrives.

The race will be on in earnest from July, and we can expect incentives and commitments from then, which the market will judge accordingly. It does mean the US is likely to miss the recession that was widely predicted, which is positive for us.

We will finish the year with speculation aplenty about Federal election timing, and with it, a raft of commitments that will facilitate cost of living relief.

There is much to be optimistic about, and ultimately the control lies in part with each of us. Any business leader will talk about planning and keeping an eye on spending. Buckle down, and be ready; for when the headwinds abate, there will be opportunities for growth.

I’m reminded of the saying “Things are never as bad as they seem and are never as good as they are”. I expect that to ring true, and may luck run with us all in 2024!

This opinion editorial originally appeared in the Herald Sun on Tuesday 2 January 2024.