Fuel price volatility: What Victorian business needs to know

Update: The Victorian Chamber and Committee for Melbourne are conducting a short survey on the impact of fuel disruptions for businesses.

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For Victorian businesses, fuel price volatility impacts transport, logistics, agriculture, construction and many service-based industries, increasing operating costs, disrupting cash flow and placing pressure on supply chains – ultimately flowing through to consumers.

The Victorian Chamber and Committee for Melbourne are engaging directly with members to understand how fuel price volatility and supply concerns are affecting businesses on the ground – and to help inform the Chamber’s advocacy to governments.

Read our rolling daily updates below. For more information from Australian Government stakeholders, including webinar updates (and past recordings), visit Austrade's Go Global Toolkit.

The Victorian Chamber, in partnership with the Australian Chamber, has produced a fuel cost recovery guide for road transport businesses. The Road Transport Contractual Chain Order Fuel Recovery 2026 Employer Guide helps businesses navigate their obligations under the Road Transport Contractual Chain Order and ensure fuel price increases are lawfully recovered.

20% off vehicle registration

In response to the fuel crisis, the Victorian Government announced a 20 per cent rebate on vehicle registrations, saving families with two cars up to $372.

From 1 June, eligible vehicle owners can apply for 20% off rego through Service Victoria.

The rebate will refund owners back 20 per cent of their registration payment for 2025/26.

It will be open to Victorians who own light vehicles for personal use: cars, utes, and anything under 4.5 tonnes.

You can claim rebates for up to two vehicles in your name, regardless of how many vehicles are in the household.

Applications are open until 31 July 2026.

Key developments 1 May

Today’s issue will be the final Fuel Supply Daily Briefing. We continue to monitor developments and advocate to government on behalf of our members. Future developments will be reported on a weekly basis.

1. Australia has begun discussions with the United States about joining the latest US proposal to ensure shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration is seeking to build a new international coalition that would enable ships to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. The project would be ‘post-conflict’ and would share information, coordinate diplomatically and enforce sanctions. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Australia has been briefed on the proposal and was “engaging on options”.
2. Australia has agreed to work together with South Korea to maintain stable and reliable supplies of energy including diesel and LNG, foreign minister Penny Wong has said after talks in Seoul last night.
3. Accommodation and tourism groups have urged federal and state governments to create a centralised fuel information platform to address fragmented information sources. In a joint announcement, Accommodation Australia, the Caravan Industry Association of Australia, and the Tourism & Transport Forum say a centralised platform would make it easier for motorists to plan longer journeys, while giving travellers confidence about where fuel is available and what it costs.

Key developments 30 April

1. Oil prices overnight hit their highest level since the war with Iran, reaching over $US120/barrel. Prices rose on a Wall Street Journal report that President Trump had told aides to prepare for an extended blockade, and following a further signal from the US President that he would keep blockading the strait until Iran agreed a deal to end its nuclear program.
2. Foreign Minister Penny Wong has said “the Chinese Government is facilitating engagement with Australian businesses on jet fuel”.
3. A survey of retailers released today by the Australian Retail Council has found that three in four businesses are absorbing cost increases either fully or partially, with two in five now expecting to increase prices by around 5 per cent within the next three months to offset increased costs.
4. Tourism Minister Don Farrell will today hold urgent discussions on the impact of the fuel crisis on tourism business at a meeting of tourism ministers today.

The Victorian Chamber also released insights from Apprenticeship Support Australia on the impact of fuel costs on apprentices, with key findings showing more than half are experiencing financial stress, rising transport costs are putting some apprentices at risk of disengaging from work and training, and wellbeing pressures are increasing under cost‑of‑living strain.

The results highlight a need for targeted, practical support, with our call for reform including priority areas such as travel and fuel relief, stronger regional support, flexible training delivery, expanded access to existing assistance measures, and better protections for apprentices during displacement.

Key developments 29 April

1. CP figures out today are the first direct of measure of the inflationary impact of the Gulf oil crisis.
2. Prime Minister Albanese will deliver a speech in Perth today at the Chamber of Minerals and Energy, where he is expected to announce that the government will not be pursuing a new gas tax in the Budget. The Prime Minister announced he will host a visit of the Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi, on Sunday-Tuesday, where energy issues will be a focus of discussion.
3. China is poised to resume exporting aviation fuel, petrol, and diesel from May, according to the FT. One source said the government believed that China’s own need for fuel was “stable” and it could now return to exports. Another source said China wished to supply mostly jet fuel to Asian countries that are now running dangerously low, as well as some gasoline and diesel.

Key developments 28 April

1. Iran has offered a deal to stop its attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz in return for a full end to the war, including ending the US blockade and postponing nuclear negotiations. Iran would retain a right to toll shipping. The Trump administration is considering the proposal, although Secretary of State Marco Rubio overnight said that a toll on shipping would be unacceptable.
2. Foreign Minister Penny Wong will this week visit Japan, China, and South Korea to discuss fuel and energy issues.
3. Opposition leader Angus Taylor will today propose to double the minimum fuel reserves for all types to 60 days. The Coalition says this would be supported by a new $800 million Australian Fuel Security Facility to build new storage capacity.

Key developments 24 April

1. President Donald Trump says he has ordered the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, as naval tensions in the region escalate.
2. Australia’s fuel supply outlook remains “secure in the near term”, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said yesterday after National Cabinet. The Prime Minister said that fuel sourcing had diversified significantly, with the US now supplying 18 per cent, Argentina now into double figures, and Algeria now also a source. The Prime Minister said that moving to Stage 3 of the National Fuel Security Plan is “certainly not imminent”, and that it would only be triggered by a reduction in supply.
3. Viva Energy CEO Scott Wyatt yesterday said while fuel imports are adequate for coming weeks, in coming months demand may need to be reduced to match potentially reduced supplies. Beyond June is “a period potentially where we won’t be able to acquire as much fuel as we would like and demand will need to be reduced to support that, but we’re not at that point at this time”.

Key developments 23 April

1.  The Prime Minister will chair a meeting of National Cabinet today. It is understood the meeting will discuss how a move to Stage Three of the National Fuel Security Plan would work, should that step be required. Sources said that any ramping-up of the Plan would prioritise diesel and aviation fuel rather than petrol. West Australian Premier Roger Cook said contingency planning about Stage Three was being undertaken, but that he’s “not aware of any proposal that we’ll be moving to Stage Three”. 
2. In an announcement to investors, Ampol said its Lytton refinery production is up 10 per cent, and that fuel supplies are secured to at least the end of May, and crude supplies into July. 

Key developments 22 April

1. Energy Minister Chris Bowen is expected to ‘soon’ unveil further policies to bolster diesel supplies, according to the Australian Financial Review. According to a government source, the government is confident of petrol supplies into the first part of June, and increasingly assured it will remain available beyond that, but that diesel, jet fuel and fertiliser face more difficult challenges. Agriculture Minister Julie Collins will today announce new deals with Wesfarmers and Incited Pivot to underwrite the purchase of fertiliser on the international market.
2. The $15bn National Reconstruction Fund investment will be rejigged to allow investment in Australia’s petrol and diesel capacity. The NRF currently has seven priority areas, but a source said an eighth priority on fuel manufacturing would be added to reflect the new priority. The NRF is also shifting from its initial purpose of generating gains across its portfolio with a target rate of return between 2–3 per cent above the five-year government bond rate.
3. AUSVEG says the fuel and fertiliser impacts are risking a situation where the supply of Australian-grown fresh vegetables is threatened for months and beyond. Growers are calling for increasing diesel concessions, the ACCC to stop transport companies using fuel levies to “price gouge”, and a delay in the scheduled July 1 minimum wage increase.
4. The Prime Minister will convene another meeting of National Cabinet tomorrow.
5. Austrade are hosting a webinar on developments in the Middle East next Wednesday. If interested, you can register to attend the webinar here.

Key developments 21 April

1. The Prime Minister last night said he would convene a National Cabinet meeting in coming days to deal with the fuel crisis. The Prime Minister said there are no plans to move to the next stage of the national fuel strategy, but that he wanted to speak to state and territory leaders to ensure that “we all move together as one nation”.
2. The Fair Work Commission yesterday issued a road transport contractual chain order, which gives road transport operators the power to pass fuel costs through to end customers. Primary parties – including retailers, manufacturers, and digital platforms – must adjust rates fortnightly to allow the recovery of fuel costs.
3. Viva Energy, in an update yesterday on its refining capacity recovery after the Geelong fire, said that it expects to lift production of diesel, jet fuel and petrol to more than 90 per cent of capacity over the next few weeks, and subject to plant inspections.
4. Treasurer Jim Chalmers yesterday warned that consequences of the conflict for the Australian economy “are already serious and could become severe”. The Treasurer indicated that the budget would have lower savings than originally anticipated, with slower growth and higher unemployment. The National Australia Bank yesterday said the probability of a recession has increased to 45 per cent.

Key developments 20 April

• Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Over the weekend, the Iranian regime had declared the Strait “completely open,” but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has subsequently said that the Strait was closed again. The US is sending officials to Islamabad for peace talks, but the Iranians have not yet agreed to meet.
• Industry Minister Tim Ayres has today opened applications for $1b worth of zero-interest loans for businesses in critical supply chains, including those producing and transporting the fuels, plastics, fertilisers and agricultural protection chemicals.
• AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says their estimate is that if oil flows do not quickly resume “fuel rationing would likely be required”, and that the associated reduction in economic activity would likely mean recession.
• Treasurer Jim Chalmers has today flagged that further fuel supply chain measures will be announced in the Budget, telling the Financial Review that “it will be a budget about supply chain vulnerabilities and supply side reforms.”

Key Developments 17 April

• The Prime Minister has cut short his Malaysian trip and will this morning visit the Viva refinery in Geelong alongside the Energy Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. The fire has impacted the petrol refining capacity of the refinery rather than diesel and aviation fuel, but the Viva CEO says that Viva’s fuel stocks and import program will be able to maintain supply to the market. Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the event would not trigger a move in the National Fuel Security Plan from Stage 2 to Stage 3. Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles has this morning said the company is “relatively optimistic of a minimal impact on supply”.
• US President Trump has overnight expressed confidence that a deal with Iran will be announced fairly soon, and it will mean “free oil and free Hormuz Strait”. The President said “everything will be nice and I think your oil price will go down lower than it was before.”
• The federal government has secured around 100 million litres of additional diesel from Brunei and South Korea under the new Strategic Reserve powers, with Export Finance Australia supporting deliveries to address shortages. The federal government also secured 250,000 tonnes of additional agricultural grade urea from Indonesia.

Key updates 16 April

1. A serious fire has broken out at one of Australia’s only two refineries. The Viva Energy refinery in Geelong supplies more than 50 per cent of Victoria’s fuel and 10 per cent of Australia’s fuel, according to Viva’s website. A worker at the refinery said this morning that the fire occurred in a critical part of the refinery and that the plant could be out of action for weeks at a minimum. Energy Minister Chris Bowen has said that the main impact will be on petrol production, while production of aviation fuel and diesel is continuing at reduced levels for safety reasons.
2. Prime Minister Albanese will today meet with the Malaysian Prime Minister in Kuala Lumpur, as well senior executives from Petronas, one of Asia’s largest oil producers and refiners. Yesterday the Prime Minister met with the Sultan of Brunei and agreed on supporting supply chain resilience in fuel, fertiliser and food.
3. Trade Minister Don Farrell yesterday announced the government will establish a new Trade Resilience Service to help Australian exporters combat significant shipping and cargo disruptions as a result of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. It is intended to provide logistics advice to help businesses and exporters get their goods through the Middle East, or find alternative markets.

Key developments 15 April

1. The fuel crisis continues to impact on broader economic conditions.
   • Business confidence fell sharply (29 index points), taking it to the lowest level since COVID in 2020.
   • The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index has fallen 12.5% to 80.1, the biggest fall since COVID.
   • The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its growth expectations for Australia to 2 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent next year from its previous forecasts of 2.1 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively.
   • AMP economist Shane Oliver says the risk of a recession in Australia is now “high”, while Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser described the higher-inflation, lower-growth scenario as a “nightmare”.
2. Qantas yesterday announced that domestic flights will be cut by 5% as a result of fuel price increases.
3. 70 per cent of trucking companies believe they will need to close unless the fuel crisis is resolved, according to a survey by the National Road Transport Association.
4. The ACTU yesterday announced it has launched a Fair Work Commission case to increase motor vehicle allowance rates to cover rising fuel, servicing and depreciation costs faced by workers using their own cars for work. The ACTU will also lift its wage claim and press for higher pay rises more widely across the economy, due to rising fuel prices.
5. More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to two US officials. President Trump said US-Iran peace talks might resume in the next two days.

Key developments 14 April

1. The US President has announced the US has begun a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz.
2. Energy Minister Chris Bowen has said the government is operating as if the Strait of Hormuz does not open soon, and that recent developments are not altering the government’s approach to secure additional fuel supply for Australia. Minister Bowen said 57 ships are en route to Australia, which he said is about the expected rate at this time of year. The Minister also said he doesn’t expect any fuel rationing in the future, saying “I don’t envisage any movement away from Stage Two”.

Key developments 13 April

1. US President Donald Trump has ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the breakdown of negotiations with Iran. The blockade would prevent any ship from entering or leaving the Strait, including shipping that had previously been permitted passage by Iran. Iran has responded saying that they ‘will not bow’ to any such threats.
2. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will tomorrow travel to Malaysia and Brunei to discuss energy security. The Prime Minister said yesterday that 57 fuel tankers were on their way to Australia, and that the amount of fuel contracted to arrive in Australia in the next four weeks had increased since the government’s last update.
3. New Deloitte modelling of war impacts says that if shipping is blocked until the end of June, economic growth in Australia would more than halve to 0.7 per cent, and unemployment would rise to more than 5 per cent. Economist Chris Richardson predicts that the fuel crisis will reduce federal Budget deficits over the next three years by around $30b through both export price lifts in coal and gas, as well as inflation driving bracket creep revenues.

Key developments 10 April

1. We thank Victorian business that have responded to our survey on the impacts of the fuel crisis. Our survey was adopted by all Chambers of Commerce, the results of which are detailed in this article by John Kehoe in the Australian Financial Review. We expect this week to continue our advocacy work with State and Fed Governments. Your involvement in our survey is crucial to ensuring that we can help create the best package is support for business.
2. The National Reconstruction Fund has provided further information on the $1 billion Economic Resilience Program designed to assist businesses to manage costs associated with supply chain disruption including rising fuel costs. The program offers zero‑interest loans to help stabilise supply chains and strengthen industrial capability.
3. ACCI, together with state chambers, has released a report on the impact of the fuel supply crisis on Australian businesses. Surveys conducted by state chambers found that more than 80% of Australian businesses are facing higher operating costs due to the fuel crisis.

Key developments 9 April

1. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain, as disputes continue over the terms and execution of the 10-point ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US. Reports indicate that Iran has again shut the Strait in response to Israel bombing Lebanon. The White House disputes those reports, saying that there has been an uptick in traffic.
2. Energy Minister Chris Bowen yesterday updated Australia’s fuel supply situation, saying that it is improving but remains under pressure, with diesel shortages continuing to ease nationwide, now affecting around 3% of service stations. He said that no fuel shipments to Australia have been cancelled, contracted imports are secure into May, and national reserves have stabilised or improved slightly. Bowen cautioned that fuel prices will remain volatile while the Middle East conflict continues, noting that prices are ultimately driven by global oil markets and will ease only if the war fully de‑escalates.
3. The Minerals Council of Australia has proposed a pause on the federal government’s major review of the Emissions Safeguards Mechanism in response to the fuel crisis.

Key developments 8 April

• US President Trump has overnight stepped up his threats against Iran ahead of his deadline of 10am AEST today. Pakistan has proposed a two-week ceasefire, to which the White House responded: “The President has been made aware of the proposal, and a response will come.”
• Prime Minister Anthony Albanese last night spoke by phone with Chinese Premier Li Qiang to discuss fuel shortages, with the Prime Minister’s office saying they are “both working in support of regional energy security.” The Prime Minister also announced that he would travel to Singapore from tomorrow until Saturday this week to meet with Prime Minister Lawrence Wong to discuss fuel security.
• Energy Minister Chris Bowen yesterday at a press conference indicated further improvements in supply. The Minister said that from discussions over Easter with the fuel companies, they had ‘locked in confidence well into May’ for shipments to Australia. Minister Bowen also said that across Australia, 241 service stations (3%) are without diesel, indicating continued but eased distribution pressures.
• Fuel shortage anxieties have driven a surge in EV purchasing, according to new car sales figures released yesterday. March sales of battery EVs rose 42% compared to February, and double compared to March last year.

Key developments 7 April

1. Energy Minister Chris Bowen yesterday said that fuel shipments have been secured ‘well into May” with 53 ships carrying fuel were on the way to Australia.
2. As of Monday, 3.4 per cent of Australia’s service stations had zero diesel, according to Energy Minister Chris Bowen.
   • That number included 142 out of 2,400 sites in New South Wales, 51 out of 1,700 in Victoria, and 38 petrol stations in Queensland.
   • The number of service stations without at least one type of fuel fell over the week to Monday from more than 800 to fewer than 600, according to Guardian analysis.
   • Petrol prices fell nearly 32c a litre in the capital cities over the week to Monday as retailers applied excise tax relief from federal and state governments last week.
3. The ACCC released its weekly report on fuel prices in Australia. International benchmark prices dropped for refined petrol (Singapore Mogas 95) to 130 cents per litre (-6%), and increased for refined diesel (Gasoil 10) to 209 (+8%).
   • On 1 April across the five largest cities, daily average retail petrol prices were 16.7 cents per litre lower compared with 31 March. Similarly, daily average retail diesel prices were 15.0 cents per litre lower.

Key developments 2 April

1. The Prime Minister will today flag increased government investment in critical industries, such as refining, in a speech at the National Press Club. The PM will also announce interest-free loans, drawing from the Future Made in Australia fund, to help businesses under strain from fuel prices, such as truckies, freight companies, farmers and fertiliser producers.
2. Treasurer Jim Chalmers yesterday announced the government will provide targeted ATO tax relief for businesses hit by fuel supply disruptions, including payment flexibility, penalty remissions and paused compliance and debt actions. It will also extend the small business responsible lending exemption for 10 years to speed up access to finance and reduce regulatory friction.
3. State and territory leaders will meet today to resolve the issue of how to hand back the $500m windfall GST revenues from fuel. The Victorian government has changed position to now being open to using it to reduce fuel excise, while the Queensland government continues to prefer targeted measures.
4. The ACTU is considering launching an urgent case before the Fair Work Commission to lift motor vehicle allowances for workers who use their own vehicle for work.

Key developments 1 April

1. The Australian Taxation Office announced tax relief measures for eligible businesses impacted by the fuel crisis, including streamlined access to more flexible payment plans, potential remission of general interest charges and other penalties, and support to vary PAYG instalments. The ATO said it will also take a more considered approach to compliance during this period.
2. Premiers and chief ministers have ‘disagreed fiercely’ about whether to hand the GST fuel windfall revenue back to motorists, the AFR reports. NSW favoured a direct benefit to motorists through the Commonwealth reducing fuel excise, and reimbursing the Commonwealth. Queensland and Victoria argued for spending the windfall on other cost-of-living and crisis-related measures.
3. The Commonwealth government will be receiving its own significant revenue windfall, worth nearly $60bn over five years, according to a Westpac analysis.
4. In Parliament: Energy Minister Chris Bowen said that there are currently more than 53 ships on their way to Australia, with some due to arrive imminently. He said that ships are continuing to arrive as planned until well into May, and that 3.7 billion litres of fuel are legally contracted to arrive in Australia over April.
5. Business groups are warning that plastics shortages are a growing area of concern.

Key developments 31 March 

1. National Cabinet met yesterday and released the National Fuel Security Plan, which sets out four stages of increasing seriousness and intervention to deal with the fuel crisis.
2. In addition, the Heavy Vehicle Road User Charge will be reduced to zero for three months, and the government will defer the scheduled increase of the charge by six months.
   • The total cost of the measures taken (excise and road user charge cut) amount to $2.55 billion.
   • State governments are considering GST relief, based on revenue windfalls resulting from higher fuel prices.
   • Economist Chris Richardson estimates this value at around $500m, meaning 4-5 cents per litre.
   • The Prime Minister announced that the Commonwealth Government will halve fuel excise for three months, commencing on 1 April, reducing the cost of fuel by 26.3 cents per litre.
   • The federal government yesterday introduced into Parliament a Bill that increases by $2bn provisions for extra emergency spending on fuel issues, should it be required.
3. The Prime Minister said yesterday that in April, 81 ships were due to arrive, six haven’t come, but there are nine in addition, meaning more fuel arriving than anticipated.

Key developments 30 March

1. National Cabinet is meeting today to discuss the fuel crisis. The Prime Minister held a series of press conferences over the weekend:
   • The PM said he wants to avoid mandated measures or restrictions: however, he will recommend a range of measures such as working from home where possible, carpooling and increasing the use of public transport as a first step.
   • The PM announced new measures to support the purchase of fuel from alternative markets. This week, amendments will be introduced in the Federal Parliament to the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation Act to allow the government to underwrite the purchase of additional cargoes.
   • There is an expectation that National Cabinet may release a set of stages that would involve increasingly drastic measures, such as purchase limits and rationing, should the war drag on.
2. The Australian Tax Office has said the business community, including small business, can be assured that the ATO will take a ‘practical and proportionate’ approach to administering tax law during the fuel crisis.
3. Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan announced that public transport would be free in April to ease the pressure on fuel demand. In Tasmania, Premier Jeremy Rockliff announced that public transport would be free from 30 March until 1 July. NSW Transport Minister John Graham has indicated that NSW would not follow suit, indicating that they prefer to keep this measure in their arsenal for later, as the situation ‘will last more than a month’. See our response below.
4. ACCI CEO Andrew McKellar yesterday released a Four-Point Plan, endorsed by all state and territory chambers of commerce, to address the fuel crisis: secure supply, ensure distribution, manage demand, and ensure business continuity.
5. The government is reporting that Australia has 39 days of gasoline (+2 since last report), 30 days of aviation kerosene (+1), and 30 days of diesel (no change) in stocks under the Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO). This represents the days of stock at a normal rate of consumption.
   
   

The Committee for Melbourne and Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry welcomed the Victorian Government’s move to deliver one month of free public transport from Tuesday 31 March.

Trains, trams and buses – metro and V/Line – will be free until the end of April for everyone.

The temporary measure will be in place as the Victorian Government says it will monitor the situation over the month and keep working on new solutions to help with cost of living.

The Victorian Chamber and Committee for Melbourne described the move as “a practical, immediate step to ease cost-of-living pressures and keep people moving during a challenging period.

“Making public transport free for the month of April provides real relief for workers and families, while helping maintain activity across our city and regions. With Easter approaching, this is also a great opportunity for families to get out and explore all that Victoria has to offer - travelling to events, visiting regional communities and supporting local tourism and hospitality businesses.

“We encourage Victorians to take up the offer, continue coming into the office where they can, and use the savings to support local businesses - from cafes and retailers to service providers - who rely on strong daily foot traffic.

“At a time of disruption, keeping our CBD and local precincts active is critical to business confidence, jobs and the broader economy. This is a positive measure that supports both households and the businesses that underpin Victoria’s economic strength.”

Key developments 27 March

1. US President Donald Trump has extended the attack deadline on Iran’s energy infrastructure by 10 days.
2. Australian farmers are warning of dwindling fertiliser supplies and no immediate federal government rescue plan. Fertiliser Australia said with shipments suspended, it could not be guaranteed supply would “fully meet the needs of farmers in the medium term”.
3. Energy Minister Chris Bowen has been intervening to force suppliers to supply regional fuel chains, relying on the threat of triggering emergency powers.
4. The Prime Minister yesterday called for a ‘Team Australia’ approach to weathering the crisis, emphasising the importance of collaboration between government and business.
5. Government legislation to amend the Fair Work Act to allow emergency, rapid applications for contract chain orders, enabling trucking companies to spread fuel costs up the supply chain, passed the House of Representatives yesterday.
6. National Cabinet is due to meet on Monday.

Key developments 26 March

1. The Prime Minister will convene National Cabinet on Monday. Media reports that the Federal Government will bring states together to create light touch measures to conserve fuel, which could include voluntary measures on work-from-home, using more public transport, and voluntary measures like those introduced by South Korea.
2. The Australian reports on a variety of impacts: An AUSVEG survey of 150 growers this week found 27 per cent had reduced or stopped planting schedules, and a further 13 per cent were considering their options; There are also reports of apprentices being laid off in the building industry.
3. Port operators are seeking an upgrade to priority status in order to secure the diesel needed to keep moving shipping containers on and off Australia’s docks.
4. Japan’s Ambassador to Australia, Kazuhiro Suzuki, yesterday said that Japan may be willing to help out in a fuel swap: petroleum products for LNG. The Ambassador also criticised the prospect of new taxes on LNG exports, which would affect Japan.

Key developments 25 March

1. Energy Minister Chris Bowen provided a state-by-state update on the service stations without fuel: at present, 600 service stations in the country are currently without one grade of fuel.
2. The Energy Minister’s department is examining whether increased ethanol levels in fuel could help bolster fuel supplies without compromising safety.
3. Companies are taking varying approaches to addressing the impact of the crisis: according to AFR reporting, Wesfarmers will suspend travel for its corporate team. The four big banks are resisting demands from unions to allow greater flexibility with respect to working from home arrangements. Perth law firm Cullen Macleod is giving staff fuel bonuses of $30 per person per week.
4. The ACCC has announced that it is closely monitoring the airline industry in light of the fuel supply situation driven by the Middle East conflict.

Key developments 24 March

1. In Parliament yesterday, Energy Minister Chris Bowen detailed the statistics on service stations suffering shortages. On latest figures, 37 out of a total of 2444 service stations in NSW were out of petrol. In Queensland, 47 outlets were out of diesel, while 32 have run out of unleaded, while 109 outlets in Victoria have one or more grades unavailable.
2. State governments are urging the Albanese government take on a national leadership role managing the prospect of emergency measures to cut demand for oil, concerned that a state-by-state approach would create confusion.
3. Speaking at the National Press Club of Australia yesterday, International Energy Agency Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol said countries are underestimating the damage of the fuel crisis. He said that the IEA would consider releasing more oil if needed, based on consultations with IEA member governments.
4. The government has announced that it will seek to amend contract negotiation times between trucking companies and retailers. Amendments to the Fair Work Act would allow road transport companies to make emergency applications.
5. The government has commissioned a national food supply chain assessment, considering the impact of the Middle East conflict on the supply of fuel, fertiliser and the distribution of resources.
6. The Prime Minister has announced the signing of a Joint Statement on Energy Security between Australia and Singapore. The statement supports the flow of essential fuels, and commits to notify and consult each other on any disruptions in the trade of energy.

Key developments 23 March

1. Energy Minister Chris Bowen has said that petrol supplies have risen a little to 38 days, but that six ships out of 81 have cancelled their planned deliveries to Australia. He said the cancelled ships had already been replaced in part by other sources, and reiterated that Australia still has two domestic refineries (Geelong and Brisbane) working “full pelt”.
   • He ruled out the use of emergency powers for now, saying that he would not use them unless he received strong advice that it were necessary in the circumstances.
   • The Minister said that it was “sensible” for Australian businesses to offer more flexible work-from-home options to cut the demand for petrol.
2. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has recommended voluntary fuel demand suppression measures, including limiting air travel, and reducing road traffic with measures such as working from home.
   • The Executive Director of the IEA, Dr Fatih Birol, is due to speak to the National Press Club of Australia in Canberra this afternoon.
3. The ACCC has granted an urgent interim authorisation to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP), its members, and other relevant industry participants to coordinate in managing impacts to Australia’s fuel supply chain stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.
4. ExxonMobil, BP and Vitol are now shipping record amounts of fuel from the US to Australia — 240,000 metric tonnes of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel — helping to fill the gap left by the loss of regular volumes from Asia.
5. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has started directly lobbying Asian governments on fuel supply, leveraging Australia’s role as a key supplier of coal and gas.
   • Energy issues will be a key focus of debate as federal parliament resumes this week.

Key developments 20 March 

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese held a meeting of the National Cabinet for an update on the situation on fuel security for Australians. Former Australian Energy Regulator CEO Anthea Harris was appointed as Fuel Supply Taskforce Coordinator to support coordination, with one representative per state and territory.

Federal and State Energy Ministers held a meeting. Media is reporting and we expect that the Minsters will discuss bailouts for badly affected sectors, and the approach for triggering of emergency powers.

Key developments 19 March

The Prime Minister convened National Cabinet for a meeting to discuss Australia’s domestic fuel supply. The Prime Minister said in a speech that he would be calling on state premiers and chief ministers to appoint a point person to facilitate collaboration with the Commonwealth in this regard. The Prime Minister is expected to consider appointing a supply chain tsar to coordinate the response.

In the speech, the Prime Minister also announced the federal government would introduce new measures to shield the Australian economy, households and businesses from the worst of the uncertainty. He said that while this would be a major feature of the forthcoming budget (to be tabled 12 May), the government would not wait until the budget, and that actions would be announced in the days ahead.

Asked if the federal government would consider buying more fuel directly from the international market to shore up security, the Prime Minister responded that monitoring is ongoing, but that ships continue to arrive as scheduled, and that Australia has the largest fuel reserves in 15 years.

In a pre-budget speech, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is expected to present Treasury modelling on two economic scenarios arising from the conflict in the Middle East.

The short-term scenario assumes oil stays at $US100 per barrel for the first half of this year and then falls back to $US70 at the end of the year. This would mean inflation at 4.5 per cent this year, with GDP dropping 0.2 points to about 2 per cent and then recovering.

Under a prolonged war scenario, oil hits $US120 by the middle of the year and takes three years to return to pre-war levels. Inflation would reach at least 5 per cent this year and GDP would be 0.6 per cent lower in 2027, with a longer tail of impact.

Key developments 16 March

The Victorian Chamber was involved in an industry summit on the Middle East crisis and its impact on petroleum supplies, convened by the Premier of Victoria, Jacinta Allan.

The Victorian Government announced a series of measures it is putting in place to address some of the immediate impacts, including anti-price gouging laws and the appointment of an energy controller within the State Control Centre able to monitor and prepare – and escalate issues as necessary.

The ACCC stepped up oversight in response to recent fuel price increases, convening an emergency meeting with petroleum suppliers and industry representatives. It has been tasked with monitoring fuel prices on a weekly basis, with the first briefing published last week.

Industry is also responding to global disruption, with oil companies actively seeking alternative sources of petroleum imports, including from the United States and Africa, to help mitigate supply risks.